Tuesday, May 02, 2006

A Theory of Suicide

A Theory of Suicide Bombing

Notes on Mia Bloom’s chapter four. Five, and six.

Suicide attacks are unique in that with every attack the ranks of the true believers get depleted.  However, if it plays right to the intended audience, every suicide attack creates more willing volunteers.

Domestic politics is an important determinant of suicide attacks.  If the base accepts such attacks, the group that can deliver it, gains increase in political support.

Individual motivation

The volunteers in suicide attack are often driven by a sense of humiliation or deep injustice.  

Religion may play an important role in prompting people to become a shahid (martyr), but it si not always necessary.  For instance, the LTTE is not a religious organization.  Also, PFLP (Popular Front for Liberation of Palestine) is a Marxist organization.

Organization

Regardless of the individual motivations, it is the organization that decides when and how suicide attacks will take place.  There is a great deal of planning and logistical support that are needed for such attacks.  Thus, these attacks follow the strategic needs of the organizations.  These strategic considerations include a) retaliation against the enemy; b) vying for market share of popular support; and c) support of the state sponsor (if any) or the Diaspora.

Therefore, following these three factors, when the enemy (the state of Israel for Hamas, the PIJ, and other Palestinian groups, the Turkish government for the PKK, the Russian government for the Chechens, and the Sri Lankan government for the LTTE) over reacts and metes out community punishments, it only helps the suicide attackers.  When the popular base, or an external friendly state or the Diaspora supports them, these organizations become stronger.

On the other hand, suicide attacks stop when such actions reduce the popular support for the organization or, if a charismatic leader is eliminated.  Thus the PKK (Turkish Workers Party) lost its support base when in started a suicide attack campaign.  Also, the arrest of their leader Abdullah Ocalan caused them at abadon such attacks.

Hizballah gave up suicide attacks after it became part of the legitimate political process in Lebanon.  

Robert Pape claims that suicide attacks are particularly successful against democracies.  However, it is not clear how he defines democracy, since Isreal, India, Sri Lanka, US, Great Britain, and Spain may be considered as democracies, Russia and Turkey seem to have lesser claim to democratic principles.  Countries like Pakistan, Iraq, or Saudi Arabia cannot be regarded as democratic.



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